Your Exit Plan: The 3 Inarguable Reasons to Start NOW
What is Your Business Exit Plan? If you’ve ever done a business plan for the purpose of raising capital, one of the key questions is “What is your exit plan?” Many business owners think that question is self-serving, intended merely to let the venture capitalists figure when and how they will get their return on investment. In truth, however, that question is far more important. A business exit plan is a strategic plan with an end date. Putting a time frame on your plan, and defining the goals to be achieved by that date, creates a future-focused mindset for the owner. It controls and reduces your tendency to prioritize daily firefighting over long term thinking. It provides you with a yardstick to measure progress. Most importantly, it affects your thinking about almost everything in your business. Here are the 3 inarguable reasons why you should start your exit plan now. Reason 1: It’s Never Too Soon In my years of working with business owners, I’ve helped many transfer their businesses to family and employees. I’ve worked with others who sold their companies to a third party for tens of millions of dollars. Surveys show that many owners have regrets afterward. Others happily move into the next phase of their lives or careers. A few have seller’s remorse. On the other end of the spectrum, some come to the realization that they hated their business owner lives for years. The majority feel that they received a reasonable reward for monetizing their work of decades. None of them. NOT ONE of them has ever said “I spent too much time planning.” It’s likely that the sale of your business will be the most important financial event of your life. There are a few lucky owners who have wealth outside or beyond the value of their businesses, but for most of us monetizing those decades of effort is the culmination of our working careers. If your exit plan is to transfer to family, you can choose vehicles like Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts (GRAT) or Self Cancelling Installment Notes (SCIN). These may have to be in place for years to substantially reduce or eliminate taxable proceeds for you and/or your heirs. In a sale to employees, developing the documentation that shows their assumption of managerial responsibilities over time is a basic qualification for SBA loan approval. That, plus developing their “down payment” equity, punches the ticket for you to walk away with your proceeds in pocket on the same day that you cede control of the company. In a sale to third parties, the condition of the financial markets at your time of exit will decide the size of your multiple. Preparing your business with due diligence in mind, and understanding the different classes of buyers, allows you to better choose the time, method, and proceeds of your transition. Although it is difficult to time the stock market, shifts in acquisition multiples take much longer to develop. Being prepared allows you to enter the market while prices are at a peak. Five years is reasonable planning time. Ten years is better. There is no time frame that’s “too far out” to be thinking about your exit. Reason 2: It Changes Your Thinking It’s difficult to run a business without being reactive. Employee issues, customer problems, and vendor policies can shift your priorities on a daily basis. When your exit plan is in place, you have a broader perspective. Every decision you make is now in the context of “Does this support my bigger picture?” There are numerous examples. Hiring: If your exit plan is to pass the business on to your children, then hiring becomes a support function. You look for employees who can fill in areas where your offspring lack the necessary skills or don’t have an interest. If you plan to sell to employees, then you are looking for a Successor in Training (SIT). That is someone who shares many characteristics with you. If you are selling to a third party, you want a Second in Command (SIC). That is someone who compliments your strengths, and who can be contractually incented to stay on the job with a new owner. Securing a management team adds considerable value to any company. Lease vs. Buy: If your plan calls for selling to someone who is likely to relocate the company, or who already has your production capabilities, you may want capital equipment to be easily disposable. A competitor or much larger acquirer may want to leave the equipment out of the transaction. In a Main Street business, you may choose to have a strong tangible asset base for an entrepreneurial owner to use when obtaining acquisition financing. Real Estate: Should you own your building? Some buyers (say a publicly-traded acquirer) prefer to lease space. In that case, owning your building could provide a post-transition income stream in your retirement. On the other hand, a relocated company could stick the owner/landlord with a special purpose building that requires significant remodeling to be rentable. These are just a few of the decisions that are better made in the context of your long term plan. The decisions you are making in your business today all have lasting implications. Reason 3: A Plan is not an Action If you are taking a long trip, you likely determine the route before you start out. If it is complex, you may print out the directions. Nonetheless, you are still likely to use a navigation app to alert you to problems along the way, like traffic jams or construction. But everyone understands that printing out the directions isn’t the same as beginning the journey. You might take that step days or even weeks before actually getting into your car. It’s the same with your exit plan. Choosing your time frame and preferred method of transition isn’t the same as making it happen. Writing it down is a key component of preparation, but it shouldn’t be confused with implementation. Starting Your
The Importance of a 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
It is no secret that the recent pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global economy, pressuring businesses across all industries to take severe measures to “weather the storm” to ensure their survival. As businesses, both large and small, are forced to rapidly address their liquidity positions, we increasingly hear about actions aimed at preserving cash that has included asset sales, drawdowns of revolving lines of credit, site closures, employee layoffs, vendor negotiations, employee compensation adjustments, and furloughs. Given that cash is the “lifeblood” of any business, measures such as these are often necessary. However, through times of business expansion and contraction, we have witnessed organizations expending substantial time and resources developing tactics around either/or cash generation and cash preservation. As a result, we strongly recommend to our clients that they invest the time and resources towards developing a basic but often overlooked management tool: a 13-week cash flow forecast model (the “cash flow forecast”). In this summary, we will talk about the key components of a cash flow forecast as well as a few of its key benefits, namely in empowering organizations to make thoughtful, informed decisions that are data-driven in nature. The Forecast and Key Components The cash flow forecast is a real-time model that breaks down the cash inflows and outflows of a business into discrete parts, and it provides the most accurate depiction of a business’s financial health (or lack thereof) as well as valuable insight into the drivers of that health. It is important to note that the development of this model should incorporate the involvement of senior leadership that provides input into the underlying assumptions and is willing to provide potential ownership regarding the development and reporting of specific categories and/or line items. These owners need to change their mindset to one of “cash in and cash out” rather than “what hits the P/L” (example: sales mean nothing if they can’t be converted to cash). While the high-level components of a cash flow forecast are shown below, each of the key component buckets should be segmented into specific line item components labeled with sufficient detail in order to create period by period comparisons (for example, “Leases” may be a line item within Cash Disbursements). Key component buckets include: Beginning Cash Balance: Recommend calculating on a Book Cash basis and will require a Bank to Book cash reconciliation. Cash Receipts: Typically consists of both the collection (both amount and timing) of existing A/R as well as future sales and their associated collection (both amount and timing); segmentation by a key customer with appropriate DSO assumptions. Include miscellaneous sources of cash as well. Cash Disbursements: Break out into operating cash, investing cash, and financing cash disbursements (subtotals). Operating cash disbursements can be thought of as normal course payments for items such as payroll, supplies, rent, etc. Investing cash disbursements can consist of several different things, but the main line items we typically see needing attribution are capital expenditures. Financing disbursements relate to debt, equity, dividends. The most common relates to interest expense or principal payments on loans. The beginning cash balance adding forecasted weekly cash receipts less forecasted weekly cash disbursements can provide a real-time view of the organization’s liquidity. The analysis should then be rolled forward each week. While opinions differ on the appropriate time period, 13 weeks is generally considered a reasonable midpoint period; short enough to provide real-time visibility and accuracy (one calendar quarter) but long enough to give the business insights that can be strategic in nature. The Benefits of Visibility in Decision-Making We subscribe to the theory that enhanced visibility into the go-forward liquidity position of an organization can be empowering and can result in thoughtful, informed, and data-driven decisions. Among the numerous benefits of a cash flow forecast are the following: Allow the business to identify and enhance cash systems and controls – numerous issues can be identified and addressed such as how cash disbursements are administered (process), how the business can understand the amount and timing of financing requirements, how sales are forecast with associated cash receipts and when the business may hit roadblocks that don’t allow it to fund key operating costs such as payroll. These are just a few of the benefits. Allows the business to address its sales and collection process – perhaps certain key customers (or profiles) don’t pay as timely as others, the business may not be invoicing correctly or in a timely manner, appropriate mechanisms, systems may not be set up to accurately record sales, discounts and importantly capture cash receipts. We have found on numerous occasions that businesses don’t actively monitor and aggressively follow-up on delinquent A/R or offer incentives (assuming make economic sense) to accelerate collections. Sales don’t mean anything if they cannot be collected. Allows the business to identify non-core assets and create asset disposition plans – in these circumstances, businesses are forced to address assets that are non-core in nature to key business operations. These may be real estate, inventory, certain business lines that may be unprofitable, etc. If assets are non-core to operations and they can be monetized, they should be, or at least there should be some consideration of this possibility. Not only does this allow a business to generate cash, but it also removes management distraction and time from administering these assets. Allows the business to address its vendors in a critical manner – with a cash flow forecast, the theoretical becomes actual, and a light can be shone on vendors regardless of the type that is bleeding cash from the business but may not be generating significant ROI. With a forecast, the amount, timing, magnitude of these disbursements can be readily understood, and this can lead to better processes on the front end in terms of identifying and approving vendors and vendor relationships. We have found on numerous occasions that businesses, regardless of whether they are in expansion or contraction mode, have seen the benefits of a cash flow forecast to be significant as it