The Importance of a 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast
It is no secret that the recent pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global economy, pressuring businesses across all industries to take severe measures to “weather the storm” to ensure their survival. As businesses, both large and small, are forced to rapidly address their liquidity positions, we increasingly hear about actions aimed at preserving cash that has included asset sales, drawdowns of revolving lines of credit, site closures, employee layoffs, vendor negotiations, employee compensation adjustments, and furloughs. Given that cash is the “lifeblood” of any business, measures such as these are often necessary. However, through times of business expansion and contraction, we have witnessed organizations expending substantial time and resources developing tactics around either/or cash generation and cash preservation. As a result, we strongly recommend to our clients that they invest the time and resources towards developing a basic but often overlooked management tool: a 13-week cash flow forecast model (the “cash flow forecast”). In this summary, we will talk about the key components of a cash flow forecast as well as a few of its key benefits, namely in empowering organizations to make thoughtful, informed decisions that are data-driven in nature. The Forecast and Key Components The cash flow forecast is a real-time model that breaks down the cash inflows and outflows of a business into discrete parts, and it provides the most accurate depiction of a business’s financial health (or lack thereof) as well as valuable insight into the drivers of that health. It is important to note that the development of this model should incorporate the involvement of senior leadership that provides input into the underlying assumptions and is willing to provide potential ownership regarding the development and reporting of specific categories and/or line items. These owners need to change their mindset to one of “cash in and cash out” rather than “what hits the P/L” (example: sales mean nothing if they can’t be converted to cash). While the high-level components of a cash flow forecast are shown below, each of the key component buckets should be segmented into specific line item components labeled with sufficient detail in order to create period by period comparisons (for example, “Leases” may be a line item within Cash Disbursements). Key component buckets include: Beginning Cash Balance: Recommend calculating on a Book Cash basis and will require a Bank to Book cash reconciliation. Cash Receipts: Typically consists of both the collection (both amount and timing) of existing A/R as well as future sales and their associated collection (both amount and timing); segmentation by a key customer with appropriate DSO assumptions. Include miscellaneous sources of cash as well. Cash Disbursements: Break out into operating cash, investing cash, and financing cash disbursements (subtotals). Operating cash disbursements can be thought of as normal course payments for items such as payroll, supplies, rent, etc. Investing cash disbursements can consist of several different things, but the main line items we typically see needing attribution are capital expenditures. Financing disbursements relate to debt, equity, dividends. The most common relates to interest expense or principal payments on loans. The beginning cash balance adding forecasted weekly cash receipts less forecasted weekly cash disbursements can provide a real-time view of the organization’s liquidity. The analysis should then be rolled forward each week. While opinions differ on the appropriate time period, 13 weeks is generally considered a reasonable midpoint period; short enough to provide real-time visibility and accuracy (one calendar quarter) but long enough to give the business insights that can be strategic in nature. The Benefits of Visibility in Decision-Making We subscribe to the theory that enhanced visibility into the go-forward liquidity position of an organization can be empowering and can result in thoughtful, informed, and data-driven decisions. Among the numerous benefits of a cash flow forecast are the following: Allow the business to identify and enhance cash systems and controls – numerous issues can be identified and addressed such as how cash disbursements are administered (process), how the business can understand the amount and timing of financing requirements, how sales are forecast with associated cash receipts and when the business may hit roadblocks that don’t allow it to fund key operating costs such as payroll. These are just a few of the benefits. Allows the business to address its sales and collection process – perhaps certain key customers (or profiles) don’t pay as timely as others, the business may not be invoicing correctly or in a timely manner, appropriate mechanisms, systems may not be set up to accurately record sales, discounts and importantly capture cash receipts. We have found on numerous occasions that businesses don’t actively monitor and aggressively follow-up on delinquent A/R or offer incentives (assuming make economic sense) to accelerate collections. Sales don’t mean anything if they cannot be collected. Allows the business to identify non-core assets and create asset disposition plans – in these circumstances, businesses are forced to address assets that are non-core in nature to key business operations. These may be real estate, inventory, certain business lines that may be unprofitable, etc. If assets are non-core to operations and they can be monetized, they should be, or at least there should be some consideration of this possibility. Not only does this allow a business to generate cash, but it also removes management distraction and time from administering these assets. Allows the business to address its vendors in a critical manner – with a cash flow forecast, the theoretical becomes actual, and a light can be shone on vendors regardless of the type that is bleeding cash from the business but may not be generating significant ROI. With a forecast, the amount, timing, magnitude of these disbursements can be readily understood, and this can lead to better processes on the front end in terms of identifying and approving vendors and vendor relationships. We have found on numerous occasions that businesses, regardless of whether they are in expansion or contraction mode, have seen the benefits of a cash flow forecast to be significant as it
Confessions of a Recovering Executive Recruiter
It never felt right. After a rewarding career that allowed me to see inside a wide variety of companies and experience a range of strategic directions, and the people who were charged to deliver them, I learned like so many of us that the common denominator to success is people. I wanted to apply all I had learned in my prior career to help companies succeed by improving on their critical people equation, so I transitioned to a contingency recruiting firm, which appeared to express a similar desire. However, from day one there was an abnormal emphasis on “transactional sales,” and not truly mastering the craft of human resource strategies and management. Internally, we hired for sales behaviors, and not for any particular expertise in human resource advisory or even an understanding of people. All of the supposed expert recruiting trainers and training materials all focused heavily on “sales.” Go ahead and look up executive recruiting training manuals or videos. Look at how much time is devoted to volume-based sales training. Do you find any training on retention planning? Or how to identify the specific behaviors that lead to success? Or how to help a client company identify a build out of a succession plan as part of the hiring initiative? They are all about the techniques involved in driving high volume transactional sales phone calls. So, I dug in and gave the “accepted” approach the benefit of a doubt knowing that I would never waver from a commitment to properly collaborate with a client in their best interest. Long story short, for many years I continued to enjoy my clients and candidates. I found myself more and more learning the recruiting side of human resources by doing the opposite of what had been preached for way too long in the recruiting world. My professional growth focused on independently learning more and more about the details of human resource initiatives and strategies. How to conduct an accurate behavioral assessment, how to build productive teams that match a company’s vision for growth, how to develop onboarding strategies that are critical to increasing retention, and as the Baby Boomer generation continues to grow older— the nuances of successful succession planning. Every industry must evolve, and today it is happening at an increasing rate due to technology and the changing values of generations. We need to ask ourselves in every business and industry: “What should we be doing differently to be more effective?” This may mean that we break away from doing what we have always done. Tough to do in a niche, such as Executive Recruiting, which still relies on training and sales methods developed over 30 years ago. As I recover from my contingency recruiting experience, there have been many takeaways, but there is one absolute flaw that must change, and it can be summed up in one word: transactional. Contingency-based recruiting is mired in a transactional method of doing business. A “throw as much against the wall and see what sticks” strategy. Make hundreds of calls a day, get as many job orders (positions companies agree to let you recruit for) as you can, and once you have all those job orders— get as many candidates as possible to get “send outs” (candidates your client has agreed to interview). Recruiting industry metrics continue to focus on this volume approach. However, the paradigm needs to shift to a focus on quality conversations leading to long term relationships with clients and candidates, and not on how many calls you made. In the Contingency Recruiting world all your time is spent working for free unless one of the many resumes you threw against that job wall sticks. Then, and only then, will the client pay you even though they are likely pushing their internal team to find a candidate to hire, so they don’t have the recruiting expense, and have also engaged several other competing recruiting firms (for free once again) on the exact same position they engaged you on. Thus, creating a horse race that emphasizes speed and quantity over quality. Does this sound like a recipe for success? Do you think this process places the executive recruiter as a trusted advisor to either client companies and candidates? Do you think recruiters are thoroughly learning what they really need to know about your company to best represent your brand and find the right cultural fit? Does the recruiter know anything about how human resource strategies are changing? Do you think a recruiter is identifying what really motivates a candidate and what is best for their career development? Most importantly: Do you think this methodology leads to quality results? “Get as many job orders from as many clients possible!” We heard it over and over. Internal contests are developed in Contingency Recruiting firms to focus on getting as many job orders as possible. I watched many recruiters take on jobs from clients they would never have done otherwise and were never going to put effort into hiring. Let’s guess how well an executive recruiter understands your company culture, strategies, strengths, weaknesses much less the role itself when they are making hundreds of calls a day? A competent contingency recruiter will focus on the process your company has in place for hiring during this conversation but misses what is even more important— a pure understanding of the position and how that position positively affects where your company is going. “Get as many send outs as possible!” These contingency firms also have internal contests that focus on the most “send outs” during a period. Makes sense statistically in that the more candidates you get your client to interview, the more you increase your chances of getting that person hired. But who benefits other than the recruiter? Let’s say I was able to get a client to interview (7) candidates. How much time has the transactional recruiter even spent with these candidates? 60-minutes max, and many are submitted after a 30-minute conversation. Or worse –
Retained Executive Search in a Contingency World
Sandy has a problem. As head of a mid-sized consumer products manufacturer, her National Sales Manager just gave her two weeks notice. Her current plan to fill the position is to do what she has always done before – hire a couple of “contingency” recruiters, which will compete against each other, to quickly find her a replacement because there are major retailer line reviews coming up. This situation is not new to Sandy or hundreds of other companies. However, upon further review, Sandy has had 5 people in that same position in the last 8 years. Furthermore, the constant turnover in this position has had a major impact on sales and expenses. “Breakeven” was actually celebrated two years ago, and her sales are down 8% this year-to-date in what should be a robust sales environment for her product line. In addition, Sandy wants to go younger thinking she can mold a “millennial” or college graduate into the type of National Sales Manager she believes will stay and grow into the position, as well as save salary expense in process. When we initially talked to Sandy, and she elected to go the contingency route once again because it has always worked for her in the past. Really? Instant gratification, the “quick fix,” or “putting a warm body into the seat,” is a strategy that rarely works, but is at the heart of the contingency executive search model. The speed and cost is often attractive to the client— and the recruiter! The search firm finds someone they think will work, arranges interviews, and when that person is hired they achieve a nice pay day and then move on. In talking with Sandy, it became clear that there were several underlying issues where just plugging a body in would not work and lead to her to even more turnover in an important position that demanded stability… The staggering turnover in this position over the last 8 years points to the fact that little thought has gone into developing retention strategies and effective onboarding. In talking with some of her former managers, when they joined the organization, they immediately sought ways to leave it. There is a lot more at work here. A traditional interview process (lack of behavioral interviewing) that actually directed a well-rehearsed candidate to say what Sandy and her human resources team wanted to hear more than identifying the best candidate. A confusing compensation plan. Sandy has been focusing her energies on saving time and money rather than putting the right person in the position, which has saved her neither time nor money. She has “accepted the fact” that there have been major costs and missed opportunities due to turnover, but she chooses to continue the same strategy. We live in a world where instant gratification and the need for speed often overwhelm the need for quality and taking the time to get it right. This is much like the difference between contingency executive search and retained executive search. A retained executive search firm is engaged in all aspects of the search process, starting with defining a customized search strategy all the way through to candidate onboarding. Retained executive search firms often continue consultation and follow-up months after the hire, since their success is based on the impact and long-term commitment of the executive hired. These firms conduct the search exclusively—no other recruitment agencies will take part—so that it will be very client-focused with intense investment of resources to find the right candidate. Retained search firms work very closely with each client, and will take their time and use an agreed-upon methodology to find the best person for the job. The process is rigorous with a shortlist from 4 to 6 quality prospects developed after an exhaustive sourcing process, beginning with upwards of 300 initial targets. While retained search may be perceived as expensive, it provides a better ROI and over time it is no more expensive than contingency, and especially the opportunity costs involved in having a bad hire. The key is that retained search firms are looking for the most qualified candidate. On average, a retained placement ends up being a better fit in their position and ultimately stays in the role longer than with any other type of recruiting scenario. Companies will most often request a retained search when they are looking to fill an executive level position, and sometimes when all other less expensive—and ineffective—contingency search options have been exhausted. The moral of the story and the happy ending… Anything worthwhile usually takes time and effort, and this is especially the case when finding the right hire. Think of the wasted time, expense and opportunities that Sandy has had the last 8 years. After a lot of analysis and discussion, Sandy agreed that it may be time for her to “retain” a different hiring strategy. We agree!
